Marble Composition

Iraq

Suzanne Nossel over at Democracy Arsenal had a great post the other day about where we are now (here's her summary):

So what do we do next:

In short, develop a withdrawal scenario that includes whatever steps can reasonably be taken to minimize the chaos in our wake. A regional conference, talks with Syria and Iran, improved training and reconstruction efforts, political mediation and efforts to bolster the security of less violent regions should all be part of the package. To the extent we can engage Iraq's neighbors as well as any other global powers who are willing to step up to the plate and help us and Iraq, we should. We should be honest with ourselves and with the Iraqis about what we are doing and why, acknowledging all of the above rather than pretending that we're handing off a country that's in better shape than it is. But we should commit to getting out of there regardless of how the diplomacy and mediation progress.

Our exit should be as responsible and forthright as our entrance was wanton and misleading. The best thing we can promise troops who are now being asked to put their lives at risk for an all-but-declared failure is that they are taking risks to enable the US to make the best out of a terrible situation, preserving what can be saved of both Iraqi stability (in geographic pockets) and of American credibility. Its by no means the mission they signed up for, but its an important one nonetheless.

Kevin Drum higlighted the last point in her post, and for good reason:

If we don't begin a planned exit, there's a good chance we'll find ourselves in an unplanned one - Its surprising that by now we haven't experienced the Iraqi equivalent of the 1983 bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut or the dragging of a corps of an American soldier through the streets of Mogadishu a decade later. But it seems likely that that day will come.

Oh, very likely indeed:

The intrepid Edward Wong of the New York Times reports that a car bomb targetting the Iraqi speaker of parliament, Mahmud Mashhadani [Sunni], was detonated inside the Green Zone on Tuesday. The Green Zone is a 4 square mile area of downtown Baghdad behind concrete walls, with a heavy US military guard. It houses the main political institutions of the new Iraq, and many parliamentarians live there. Likewise the US embassy and other Coalition institutions are based there. This is the most serious incident inside the Green Zone for some time.

As much as I loathe the thought, I believe the moment that Suzanne describes is coming. As unpopular as this war has become, wait until Americans get a look at some kind of Mogadishu moment in Iraq. At that point, support for the war will plummet. Another far-fetched possibility is one where the armed forces' supply lines are cut off. While airlifts would pick up the slack, and the severing would probably only be temporary, the effect on the view here at home would be major.

In other news, it's pretty clear the Brits are headed for the door. They may be tip-toeing around it, but they want out by next year:

"We expect Najaf to be the next province to be transferred to Iraqi control in December," Beckett told lawmakers in the House of Commons.

"In our own area of responsibility, we expect Maysan to follow in January," she said. "The progress of our current operation in Basra gives us confidence that we may be able to achieve transition in that province too at some point next spring."

Last month, Defense Secretary Des Browne said Britain was "quite far down the process" of transferring responsibility to the Iraqis.

posted by FuzzFinger @ 11/22/2006 05:51:00 PM